Let’s start with a little Algebra 1, a kind of word problem similar to those you might encounter on the SAT or ACT.
No, wait — don’t go! You can handle this. I promise.
Say your goal at the gym is to do a certain amount of work on the bench press. You lift 135 pounds through a vertical distance of 16 inches (0.406 meters), three sets of 10 reps, 30 reps total.
The mathematical “work” in your workout, where Work = Force × Distance, comes out to:
135 lb × 4.448 N/lb × 0.406 m × 30 ≈ 7,300 joules
Now switch to a lighter weight with more reps: 81 pounds, two sets of 25, 50 reps total:
81 lb × 4.448 N/lb × 0.406 m × 50 ≈ 7,300 joules
Even though the workouts look very different, they achieve equal amount of mechanical work,
Numbers don’t lie.
The same basic idea applies to today’s college admissions game. Just as different combinations of force and reps can yield the same total work, different combinations of applications and admissions odds can yield the same chances of acceptance.
When I applied to college in the early 1980s, many highly selective schools had acceptance rates in the neighborhood of 20–25%. For the class of 1983, Harvard/Radcliffe admitted 17% of applicants, Princeton 20%, and Stanford and Yale 21%.¹
By precipitous contrast, today, many of the colleges students dream about have admissions rates in the single digits.
So let’s use a little more deliberately simple Algebra 1.
If a school’s acceptance rate is 25%, you might think since you have a one in four chance, you need four applications to reasonably expect an acceptance to one.
If it’s 5%, you need 20.
That’s the basic idea, and it’s a useful starting point. But it’s not the whole picture.
Acceptance rates aren’t the same thing as your personal probability of admission. Your academic record, testing, activities, essays, institutional priorities, major, residency, and a whole host of other factors matter—and admissions decisions aren’t independent, since the same applicant characteristics shape your odds at multiple schools at once.
Even setting that aside, and assuming purely for illustration that admissions decisions are independent: a 25% chance at each of four colleges gives you roughly a 68% chance of at least one acceptance, not 100%. A 5% chance at each of 20 colleges gives you about 64%.
So the formula isn’t a prediction of your admissions outcome. It’s a way of illustrating something more important:
As acceptance rates fall, students need a wider and more carefully constructed college list.
And that matters more than ever. According to Common App, students submitted an average of 7.06 applications each during the 2025–26 cycle, with more than 10.8 million applications submitted through the platform.
But here’s the catch: applying to more colleges isn’t automatically the answer.
A smart college list isn’t simply a pile of applications. It should contain the right mix of Safety, Reasonable Fit, and Reach schools.
So what does that mix look like? Good question. Glad you asked.
Safety Schools: Your GPA and SAT/ACT scores are above the 75th percentile of students entering that college. You’re academically stronger than most of the students they admit, although no college is ever a 100% guarantee.
Reasonable Fit Schools: Your GPA and SAT/ACT scores fall between the 25th and 75th percentiles of the incoming class. You’re solidly within the academic range of students the college typically admits.
Reach Schools: Your GPA and/or SAT/ACT scores fall below the 25th percentile of the incoming class. Admission is possible, but you’re applying from below the college’s typical academic range.
A healthy college list contains a thoughtful mix of all three.
And remember: the more selective the colleges, the more important that mix becomes. If your list is filled with schools admitting 5% of applicants, simply adding more schools with 5% acceptance rates doesn’t necessarily make your list safer. You need some schools where your academic profile puts you comfortably above the typical applicant, somewhere you’re squarely in the middle of the pack, and a few where you’re taking your shot.
In other words: don’t just apply to more colleges. Apply to the right mix of colleges.
Because, once again — numbers don’t lie.
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¹ Richard Moll, Playing the Private College Admissions Game (Penguin Books, 1979), as cited in the Christian Science Monitor, September 22, 1980.